The Big Ten got a lot bigger. I don’t know that it will actually be better, though, in 2024.
Ohio State may be the national title co-favorite, and Oregon is on the cusp of contention. But three-time defending league champ Michigan is rebuilding, Penn State has to prove it can get over the hump, and there may be a dropoff after the first four or five teams.
Big Ten predictions
A few thoughts on the top contenders
Ohio State: The Buckeyes are loaded, and there’s not a close second in the conference. An offense with TreVeyon Henderson and Ole Miss transfer Quinshon Judkins in the backfield and Emeka Egbuka, Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith on the outside seems unfair. An Oct. 12 trip to Oregon figures to be the big test, but I don’t see the two on the same level.
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Oregon: Don’t expect much of a drop-off from Bo Nix to Oklahoma transfer Dillon Gabriel, who could have a field day throwing to Tez Johnson and Texas A&M transfer Evan Stewart. He’ll benefit from an offensive line that allowed just five sacks last season. The defense needs to take a step up for the Ducks to win the conference. Dan Lanning made some nice adds in the portal.
Iowa: The Hawkeyes will likely be offensively challenged again — Brendan Sullivan, who couldn’t hold on to the job at Northwestern, may be the starting QB — though bringing in Tim Lester as coordinator should help. But of course, the defense is always stacked and will only face a couple of foes (like Ohio State) that it can’t shut down.
Michigan: The Wolverines won’t contend for another national title — it’s just a question of how far they slide. The defense, led by stud tackles Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham, should be awfully stingy again, and running back Donovan Edwards is a proven star. But breaking in a new quarterback and losing nearly the entire O-line is not ideal.
Penn State: James Franklin is cycling in yet another offensive coordinator to hopefully get more out of quarterback Drew Allar, but the pieces around him seem limited. You can always count on the Nittany Lions to field a stout defense. The three-game stretch of at USC, at Wisconsin and home against Ohio State will define the season.
Rutgers: Heck yeah, Rutgers. Greg Schiano’s program is poised for a breakthrough in his fourth season after jumping from 4-8 in 2022 to 7-6 last season. The defense finished in the top 20 last season, and All-Big Ten running back Kyle Monangai emerged as a force. No, they won’t make it to Indianapolis, but the Scarlet Knights should reach a decent bowl.
Wisconsin: I’d be surprised if the Badgers don’t show improvement in Luke Fickell’s second season, helped by the addition of Miami quarterback transfer Tyler Van Dyke. But the Badgers do still have questions, and their schedule is daunting. Alabama visits Camp Randall, the Badgers to go USC and Iowa, and they host Penn State and Oregon.
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A few thoughts on the other new schools
USC: It’s less-than-ideal timing for USC to be moving to the Big Ten. Even if Miller Moss becomes the next great Lincoln Riley quarterback protégé, the Trojans aren’t likely to be dominant in the trenches on offense. And while Riley made some big staff moves, most notably plucking UCLA DC D’Anton Lynn, he needs another year to upgrade the talent.
Washington: The Huskies may be the closest thing to a college football expansion team. Completely new set of coaches, many of whom followed Jedd Fisch from Arizona. New quarterback, four-year Mississippi State starter Will Rogers. An entirely new offensive line, and new starters at nine positions on defense. Getting to six wins would be a success.
UCLA: DeShaun Foster has his work cut out at his alma mater. The fan base has not yet shaken out of the malaise of the Chip Kelly era. UCLA has lagged far behind in NIL, hurting the program in the portal and recruiting. And the renowned DC moved across town. Quarterback Ethan Garbers is solid, but the Bruins might take a sizeable step back on defense.
(Photos of Tez Johnson, TreVeyon Henderson: Mark J. Rebilas, Adam Cairns / USA Today)
Stewart Mandel is editor-in-chief of The Athletic's college football coverage. He has been a national college football writer for two decades with Sports Illustrated and Fox Sports. He co-hosts "The Audible" podcast with Bruce Feldman. Follow Stewart on Twitter @slmandel
